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Franken Declared the Winner in Minnesota

The Minnesota canvassing board has declared Democrat Al Franken the winner of the hotly contested Senate race there. Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) filed a suit with the state Supreme Court but the court threw it out yesterday. Coleman vowed to contest the election with another suit, but the chances of him prevailing in the state courts are slim. Even if he gets most of what he is asking for, that is unlikely to produce enough votes to overturn Franken's margin.

The suit will claim that since each county counted and recounted its own votes without statewide guidance, different standards were used in different counties, thus violating the constitution's equal protection requirement. Of course, lack of statewide standards applies to all state and federal elections in all states, so that is hardly unique to this case. Thus it seems that his real game plan is to appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court and get a 5-4 decision in his favor as in the Florida 2000 election. Only then, the Supreme Court stopped the counting. Now the counting is finished. It is not clear what the court could decide--maybe force a recount of the entire state?

Second Round of Voting for Top 10 Ideas for Change

"Transparent election systems" made it to the second round at change.org. If you want to support the idea of fixing the election machinery so every vote counts, please go there and vote for transparent election systems.

Caroline Kennedy's Support Collapses among New Yorkers

Maybe Caroline Kennedy peaked too early, but a new poll shows state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo leading Kennedy 58% to 27% as the person they would like to see Gov. David Paterson appoint to Hillary Clinton's Senate seat. Of course, it is not known if Paterson is paying any attention to the polls. Still, as someone who must face the voters himself in 2010, making an unpopular appointment won't help is own election campaign then.

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Minnesota Senate Race May Be Certified Today

As far as state election officials are concerned, all the votes have been counted in the Minnesota Senate race and Al Franken won by 225 votes. However, Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) has asked the Minnesota Supreme Court to count additional votes (in Coleman-friendly territory). The court has not yet ruled on Coleman's request. It should be remembered that two of the seven members of the court are on the canvassing board, including chief justice Eric Magnuson. It seems unlikely that Magnuson (the justice) will tell Magnuson (the canvasser) that he screwed up. However, it is possible that he and associate justice G. Barry Anderson will recuse themselves from voting on the case. Coleman has said that if his request is denied he will file another lawsuit, probably alleging that votes in some (Franken-friendly) precincts were counted twice. With the Senate set to reconvene tomorrow, the court may act today. It is not unheard of to have courts act within a day, for example, hearing last minute appeals from prisoners scheduled to be executed that day.

Kaine to Succeed Dean at the DNC

Yesterday we had a story about the six-way fight for the chairmanship of the Republican National Committee. The party that occupies the White House has a much easier job: the President just says who he would like and the national committee members all stand up and salute. President-elect Obama has now said that he wants Gov. Tim Kaine (D-VA) to be chairman of the DNC and that will surely happen now. Kaine is currently serving his fourth and final year as governor of Virginia and is forbidden by law from succeeding himself. Ironically, the highest profile Democrat trying to become the governor of Virginia is Terry McAuliffe, who was formerly chairman of the DNC. It has happened before that a (former) governor has become chairman of the DNC: the current chairman, Howard Dean, was governor of Vermont for almost six terms before taking over the DNC.

Richardson Withdraws from Secretary of Commerce Nomination

Secretary-designate Bill Richardson has withdrawn his name as the new Secretary of Commerce. He is being investigated for possible favoritism in granting state contracts to political donors and didn't want the economic stimulus to be held up by a long drawn-out confirmation hearing.

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Minnesota Recount Complete: Franken Ahead by 225 Votes

The Minnesota canvassing board finished counting all 900 rejected absentee ballots that the parties agreed on yesterday and the unofficial count puts Al Franken ahead by 225 votes. Franken won 52% of the newly counted absentee ballots to Coleman's 33%, with the rest going to independent Dean Barkley or there was no vote for senator. There is nothing left to count now.

Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) has not conceded. Instead, he has filed suit with the Minnesota Supreme Court asking for more absentee ballots from other counties to be counted. If he loses this case, he has promised to file another suit. It is not clear if he really thinks he can win or he is merely stalling to reduce Democratic strength in the new Senate for the first month or so. If the Minnesota and Illinois seats are empty Tuesday, the Democrats will have 57 seats (counting Sen. Bernie Sanders and Sen. Joe Lieberman, independents who have lunch with the Democrats on Tuesdays) and the Republicans will have 41 seats. Cloture requires a 3/5 majority or 58.8, presumably 59 in practice, so the Democrats will be 2 shy. If Franken wins and someone is seated from Illinois in the fullness of time, the Democrats will have 59 seats and be one short.

Having a former comedian in the Senate may seem odd, but other senators have somewhat unusual backgrounds, too. Sen. John Ensign (R-NV) used to be a veterinarian and former Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) was a blacksmith. At least Franken is accustomed to speaking to large numbers of people and is able to keep their attention. Many senators were lawyers, but the step from being a lawyer to being a lawmaker isn't really so obvious when you come to think of it. Senators make public policy, which is really quite different than defending clients in court or writing contracts, which is what lawyers do. Senators don't really even need a detailed knowledge of the law since the actual laws are written by staff members. Few, if any, senators spend the day sitting at their computers typing in the text of the law they are working on.

Six-way Race for RNC Chairman Heats Up

The battle for the chairmanship of the Republican National Committee has heated up. The Republican Party has essentially been decapitated. Without a President, Senate majority leader, or House Speaker, who represents the party? John McCain is not going to run again and has little credibility as national leader. While Sarah Palin is wildly popular in some circles, she is no shoe-in in 2012, so she is hardly the party leader either. De facto, the party leader is probably going to be the chairman of the Republican National Committee, which is currently engaged in a vigorous six-way election for chairman. The candidates are as follows:

Candidate State Notes Saul Anuzis Michigan Chairman of the Michigan Republican Party Ken Blackwell Ohio Former Ohio Secretary of State Katon Dawson South Carolina Chairman of the South Carolina Republican Party Mike Duncan Kentucky Current chairman of the RNC Chip Saltsman Tennessee Former chairman of the Tennessee Republican Party Michael Steele Maryland Former lieutenant governor of Maryland Click here for full story

Minnesota Recount To Continue Today

Lots of Senate news today. The Minnesota canvassing board will begin counting 900 disputed absentee ballots today that both candidates have agreed on. The board hopes to finish tomorrow. However, Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) has filed suit with the state Supreme Court asking to count an additional 2000 ballots (from Coleman-friendly counties). If he loses that case, he has promised to file another suit. By Monday morning we should have a final count unless the courts interfere.

Since Coleman has not been certified as the winner, when his term expires today at noon, he will cease to be a senator and will lose his desk on the Senate floor and his office. He will still be allowed to wander onto the Senate floor, however, as this courtesy is extended to all former senators.

More on the Illinois Senate Appointment

Whatever else can be said of Roland Burris, who has been appointed to Barack Obama's vacant seat in the Senate, he certainly has a sense of humility befitting a senator. In addition to naming his children Roland and Rolanda, he built himself a lovely mausoleum clearly suitable for a senator. Only it is not at all clear he will get to be a senator. It is likely that when he shows up at the Senate next week he will be barred from the floor and the issue of his seating will be referred to the rules committee, which will probably delay making a decision until after the near certain impeachment and probable conviction of Illinois governor Rod Blagojevich. If Blagojevich is convicted, Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn (D) will become governor. Ironically, although Burris won't be allowed onto the floor of the Senate, Blagojevich will be, as floor privileges are granted to all sitting governors.

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Small Progress In Minnesota

The Minnesota canvassing board finished processing all the challenged votes yesterday, which netted Al Franken (D) four votes. He now leads by 50 votes. However, there are major disputes on the improperly rejected absentee ballots. Franken has said he wants all the absentee ballots that county officials have said were improperly rejected to be counted. Coleman wants a small fraction of them to be counted plus a list of almost 700 other ones from rural counties. We are nowhere near resolution on this one and it certainly won't be over when the new Senate convenes next week.

Cornyn Against Provisionally Seating the Certified Winner

Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) said yesterday that the Franken camp is promoting chaos by claiming victory when his lead is artificial and was created by double counting votes. This is Coleman's line, of course, but Coleman hasn't produced a shred of evidence to back up his claim. Cornyn also said he was against provisionally seating Franken if he is certified the winner. What Cornyn didn't mention is that in January 2007, the House, then controlled by the Democrats, did provisionally seat Vern Buchanan (R) of Florida even though there was a lot of evidence that something was wrong (large number of undervotes in Democratic counties that used voting machines but not in other counties).

Help Create A Transparent Voting System

At change.org, people can vote for the change they want to see in the new administration. There will be a big push to lobby for the winning causes. If, in light of the above, you are interested in open and transparent elections, you might want to take a look at transparent elections. If you like the idea, click on the 'Vote' button to create an account and vote. You don't have to be a registered voter to vote in this 'election' so noncitizens and minors can vote, too. The deadline for voting is midnight tonight.

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Dueling Press Conferences in Minnesota

As a result of a monumentally stupid decision by the Minnesota supreme court telling Senate candidates Al Franken (D) and Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) to agree on which improperly rejected absentee ballots should be counted, nothing happened yesterday--except each side gave a press conference to flog its views. What the court should have done is told the canvassing board to make sure every legal vote was counted and told the candidates to shut up and wait for the results. Coleman now wants to count an additional 700 ballots that were previously not identified as disputed. Franken said Coleman is trying to cherry pick ballots from precincts that he won.

An analysis by the Star Tribune shows that counting just the previously identified disputed ballots would probably help Franken, just based on where they come from. Currently, Franken leads by 46 votes. This small edge prompted Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) to suggest that whoever is ahead when the canvassing board stops counting should be seated in the Senate. It used to be that campaigns stopped after the voting was finished. Now they just keep going. The goal is drive public opinion so that if your side wins, your supporters will feel they have won a moral victory as well as a political victory and if your side loses, your supporters will feel robbed, rather than that your candidate simply got fewer votes than the other one.

Obama's Honeymoon Continues

Many people go to Hawaii to have a honeymoon. Barack Obama went there with his family on vacation and got the honeymoon as an extra added attraction. Despite a flap about his inviting gay marriage opponent Rick Warren to bless his inauguration, Obama's approval rating is soaring according to a new Opinion Research poll commissioned by CNN. Fully 82% of Americans approve of how Obama is handling his transition; 15% disapprove. For comparison purposes, George W. Bush's transition approval rating was 65% in 2000 and Bill Clinton's was 67% in 1992. Historically, Presidents lose popularity once they assume office and actually start making decisions that some people don't like.

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Minnesota Absentee Ballots Take Center Stage

County officials in Minnesota have identified 1350 absentee ballots that were probably incorrectly rejected. A Minnesota supreme court ruling last week ordered the two Senate candidates, Al Franken (D) and Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) to decide which ones to count. The sparring over them will begin today. Heaven only knows when it will end. The canvassing board will meet tomorrow.

McAuliffe Raising Money for Virginia Gubernatorial Run

Terry McAuliffe, the former chairman of the Democratic National Committee and a prodigious fundraiser for the Clintons and other Democrats is busily raising money for himself now in preparation for running for governor of Virginia in 2009. Virginia was once a bastion of the Republican Party, but that has changed in recent years. In 2005, Tim Kaine (D) was elected governor, in 2006, Jim Webb (D) was elected senator, and in 2008 Mark Warner (D) was elected senator and Barack Obama (D) won the state by 7 points. McAuliffe might raise $80 million. It wasn't that long ago that you could run for President on that budget. Against that kind of money and with the state's northern suburbs becoming more Democratic by the day, McAuliffe will be formiddable competitor. The current governor, Tim Kaine, is forbidden by law from succeeding himself.

Illinois Lieutenant Governor Predicts Blagojevich Will Be Impeached

Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn (D-IL) has predicted that the Illinois state legislature will impeach and convict Gov. Rod Blagojevich by Abraham Lincoln's 200th birthday, Feb. 12, 2009. If that happens, Quinn will become governor of Illinois. Blagojevich is steadfastly maintaining his innocence despite federal charges that he tried to sell Barack Obama's Senate seat.

The Ten Biggest Upsets of 2008

Between all the primaries and caucuses and general election races for President, Senate, and House, and a smattering of gubernatorial contests, there were close to 600 top races in 2008. The polls and pundits got well over 95% right, but there were nevertheless a few surprising upsets. Politico has a story on the 10 biggest upsets of 2008. Here is the list.

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GOP senator: Waxman is Tougher Than A Boiled Owl

There's not much political news this week, with Congress not in session and President-elect Obama on vacation in Hawaii. CQ Politics has a good backgrounder on Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA), a short, quiet, unassuming, bald, policy wonk who is about to become one of the most powerful people in the country. Waxman recently unseated Rep. John Dingell (D-MI) to become chairman of the House energy and commerce committee. Much of Obama's domestic agenda, especially energy, the environment, and health care, falls within the jurisdiction of his committee, and he will be a force to be reckoned with. Waxman, who represents Hollywood, Beverly Hills, and wealthy surrounding areas in CA-30, is a close ally of Speaker Nancy Pelosi and an unabashed liberal. Former senator Alan Simpson (R-WY) once griped that Waxman was "tougher than a boiled owl."

As if Waxman didn't have enough power as chairman of a key committee, Philip Schiliro, his chief of staff for 25 years, is now Obama's liason to Congress. This appointment cuts both ways. It gives the President a direct link to one of the most powerful people in Congress but it also gives Waxman a direct pipeline into the heart of the White House. Unlike many congressmen, Waxman rarely seeks the spotlight, but the 17-term congressman will have a huge influence because although Obama will give him general directions, it is Waxman (and his various Senate counterparts) who will write the actual laws.

Time ran a story on him two years ago, calling him a contender for the "Scariest Guy in Town." It's still true.

MoveOn Sets Priorities

The large progressive activist group MoveOn polled its members and came up with priorities to push for during the first months of the Obama administration. They are universal health care, fixing the economy, the environment, and ending the war in Iraq. Notably absent from the list are fighting for gay rights, holding the Bush administration accountable, and election reform. Those on the left will no doubt be disappointed by the group not being on the cutting edge, but given a choice between pushing for things that are not going to happen no matter what (like national same-sex marriage) and things that might happen if enough pressure is placed on hesitant members of Congress (like universal health care), they chose the more pragmatic course.

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GOP Primed for Internal Battles

David Broder points out that while normally the secretary of transportation in not a key cabinet member, the new one, Rep. Ray LaHood, may have a problem on his hands. A large piece of the stimulus bill deals with roads, bridges, and other items that fall under his department, so he is the point man for them. His problem is that the stimulus bill is likely to be opposed by the (southern) congressional Republicans, which puts him in direct conflict with his former colleagues. By reaching out to a moderate Republican like LaHood, President-elect Obama may have (inadvertently?) attempted to drive a wedge between the few remaining congressional moderates and the southern core of the party.

History Repeats Itself

A formerly unknown young Democrat wins the White House with over 360 electoral votes while an unpopular President Bush slinks off. Democrats have 58 seats in the Senate and over 250 seats in the House. A solid majority of the governors are Democrats. The country is in a recession. The Republicans are demoralized. Sound familiar? If so, welcome to 1993 when Bill Clinton went to Washington. Two years later the Republicans came back in force. However, there are a couple of key differences now with 1993. First, the Republican caucus in the House and to a lesser extent in the Senate are dominated by conservative southerners, as Broder points out. Finding a strategy that will appeal to the whole country but also to them will be a lot harder than in the 1990s when the Republicans were a national party. Second, due to increased partisan bickering for the past 16 years, a lot of people really want Obama to succeed and if the Republicans adopt the motto "obstruct, obstruct, obstruct" it may not play well at all with independents. Third, Obama is a much shrewder politician than he is often given credit for and has the benefit of hindsight. The new health care system is going to come from Tom Daschle, the secretary of health and human services, not Michelle. What Michelle is going to do all day is not yet clear, but hatching health care plans is not on her agenda.

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Lawsuit All but Assured in Minnesota

Top lawyers for Norm Coleman's campaign have said that a lawsuit is virtually certain in the Minnesota Senate election. Reading between the lines, this suggests that they have de facto conceded defeat in the actual vote counting. If you were expecting to get more votes than the other guy, why would you even talk about filing a suit? There has been nary a word about lawsuits from the Franken camp, just a prediction that Frank will win by 35-50 votes. Coleman will have an uphill struggle because the Minnesota supreme court has denied every motion he has brought before it so far. It is clear the court does not want to settle the election. It wants the canvassing board to do so and it seems unlikely it will overturn the canvassing board's decision unless Coleman can show the board violated state law. In any event, no suit will be filed until the 1600 absentee ballots in dispute have been counted and that won't happen until January 5. So Minnesota will start the new session of Congress with one senator. There should have been some provision in the constitution that when a senate seat is vacant, the other senator gets two votes so the state is not disadvantaged, but there isn't.

Final Presidential Results

Not a lot of political news on Christmas day, but here is some reworked old news. Below are the final results (taken from the Wikipedia's presidential election page). In a few cases, the rounding is slightly different from the earlier results posted here. The map software uses integers, so for each candidate, the percentage of the total vote was computed and rounded to the nearest integer, then the map drawn. This algorithm could give slightly different results in a few cases than doing all the computations to several decimal places. If you want to play with the data, they are available in Excel format and .csv format. For example, you could sort the states by Nader's percentage or whatever. These files are also on the Data galore page (on the menu) in case you want them in the future. Nebraska is colored purple below because although McCain got more votes in the state than Obama, Obama won one of the electoral votes (NE-02).

State Obama McCain Nader Barr Baldwin McKinney Others Total Alabama 813,479 1,266,546 6,788 4,991 4,310 0 3,705 2,099,819 Alaska 123,594 193,841 3,783 1,589 1,660 0 1,730 326,197 Arizona 1,034,707 1,230,111 11,301 12,555 1,371 3,406 24 2,293,475 Arkansas 422,310 638,017 12,882 4,776 4,023 3,470 1,139 1,086,617 California 8,274,473 5,011,781 108,381 67,582 3,145 38,774 57,764 13,561,900 Colorado 1,288,576 1,073,589 13,350 10,897 6,233 2,822 5,894 2,401,361 Connecticut 997,772 629,428 19,162   311 90 29 1,646,792 Delaware 255,459 152,374 2,401 1,109 626 385 58 412,412 District of Columbia 245,800 17,367 958     590 1,138 265,853 Florida 4,282,074 4,045,624 28,124 17,218 7,915 2,887 6,902 8,390,744 Georgia 1,844,137 2,048,744 1,123 28,812 1,305 249 62 3,924,432 Hawaii 325,871 120,566 3,825 1,314 1,013 979   453,568 Idaho 236,440 403,012 7,175 4,747 3,658     655,032 Illinois 3,419,673 2,031,527 30,952 19,645 8,256 11,838 1,160 5,523,051 Indiana 1,374,039 1,345,648 909 29,257 1024 87 90 2,751,054 Iowa 828,940 682,379 8,014 4,590 4,445 1,423 7,332 1,537,123 Kansas 514,765 699,655 10,527 6,706 4,148 35 36 1,235,872 Kentucky 751,985 1,048,462 15,378 5,989 4,694     1,826,508 Louisiana 782,989 1,148,275 6,997   2,581 9,187 10,732 1,960,761 Maine 421,923 295,273 10,636     2,900 431 731,163 Maryland 1,629,467 959,862 14,713 9,842 3,760 4,747 9,205 2,631,596 Massachusetts 1,904,097 1,108,854 28,841 13,189 4,971 6,550 14,483 3,080,985 Michigan 2,872,579 2,048,639 33,085 23,716 14,685 8,892 170 5,001,766 Minnesota 1,573,354 1,275,409 30,152 9,174 6,787 5,174 10,319 2,910,369 Mississippi 554,662 724,597 4,011 2,529 2,551 1,034 481 1,289,865 Missouri 1,441,911 1,445,814 17,813 11,386 8,201 80   2,925,205 Montana 231,667 242,763 3,686 1,355     10,638 490,109 Nebraska 333,319 452,979 5,406 2,740 2,972 1,028 2,837 801,281 Nevada 533,736 412,827 6,150 4,263 3,194 1,411 6,267 967,848 New Hampshire 384,826 316,534 3,503 2,217 226 40 3,624 710,970 New Jersey 2,215,422 1,613,207 21,298 8,441 3,956 3,636 2,277 3,868,237 New Mexico 472,422 346,832 5,327 2,428 1,597 1,552   830,158 New York 4,769,700 2,742,298 41,086 19,513 614 12,729 8,873 7,594,813 North Carolina 2,142,651 2,128,474   25,722     13,942 4,310,789 North Dakota 141,278 168,601 4,189 1,354 1,199     316,621 Ohio 2,933,388 2,674,491 42,288 19,888 12,550 8,513 7,142 5,698,260 Oklahoma 502,496 960,165           1,462,661 Oregon 1,037,291 738,475 18,614 7,635 7,693 4,543 13,613 1,827,864 Pennsylvania 3,276,363 2,655,885 42,977 19,912       5,995,137 Rhode Island 296,571 165,391 4,829 1,382 675 797 122 469,767 South Carolina 862,449 1,034,896 5,053 7,283 6,827 4,461   1,920,969 South Dakota 170,924 203,054 4,267 1,835 1,895     381,975 Tennessee 1,087,437 1,479,178 11,560 8,547 8,191 2,499 2,337 2,599,749 Texas 3,528,633 4,479,328 5,214 56,116 5,052 671 2,781 8,077,795 Utah 327,670 596,030 8,416 6,966 12,012 982 294 952,370 Vermont 219,262 98,974 3,339 1,067 500   1,904 325,046 Virginia 1,959,532 1,725,005 11,483 11,067 7,474 2,344 6,355 3,723,260 Washington 1,750,848 1,229,216 29,489 12,728 9,432 3,819 1,346 3,036,878 West Virginia 303,857 397,466 7,219   2,465 2,355 89 713,451 Wisconsin 1,677,211 1,262,393 17,605 8,858 5,072 4,216 8,062 2,983,417 Wyoming 82,868 164,958 2,525 1,594 1,192   1,521 254,658 U.S. Total 69,456,897 59,934,814 736,804 524,524 196,461 161,195 226,908 131,237,603 Click here for full story

Merry Christmas

Merry Christmas everyone! Even to Norm Coleman (who is Jewish) but it is not likely to be a merry Christmas or even a happy Chanukah for him. Yesterday, the Minnesota state supreme court unanimously denied his motion to force the canvassing board to consider his claim that some votes in Franken strongholds were counted twice. Instead, he could go to court if he wants to--but only after a winner has been certified. Of course he can sue but (1) he is going to have to come up with some hard evidence that votes were actually double counted, something he hasn't done yet, and (2) the case will end up back in the Minnesota state supreme court, which has denied every motion he has brought before it so far. The court clearly does not want to decide the election. It wants the canvassing board to do so, as Minnesota law requires. With all the challenges now processed, all that is left is dealing with the 1600 absentee ballots that may have been improperly rejected. But absentee ballots in this election tend to favor Franken, who is currently leading by 46 votes according to the Star Tribune. If Franken picks up more votes from the absentee ballots, he will be certified the winner and Coleman will have the difficult task of convincing the state supreme court to reverse the election. Courts really, really, hate to do that absent some fairly gross malfeasance somewhere down the food chain. Here is the AP's story on the court ruling. The AP puts Franken's lead at 47. Both this count and the Star Tribune's are unofficial though.

While Coleman's chances at this point are not zero, they are not great either. Here is what the bettors at www.intrade.com have thought of Coleman's chances to win over the past 60 days. If you think Coleman will win, here is your chance to make some big money fast. You can buy 1000 shares in Coleman-to-win for about $600. If he is elected, you get $10,000.

Rundown of the 2010 Senate Races

Campaign Diaries has a rundown of the 2010 Senate races, ranking them from shakiest (Jim Bunning) to most solid (Bob Bennett). Our rundown is here. Early next year we'll change the map to reflect the 2010 Senate races.

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Minnesota Keeps At It

The Minnesota recount process kept moving, albeit slowly, yesterday. Al Franken now leads by 46 votes. However, some challenged ballots remain to be processed. If you want to view some of the challenged ballots, the Star Tribune has some online. Coleman asked for a do-over on 16 previously challenged ballots but the canvassing board said no. It increasingly appears that Coleman is grasping at straws. The board seems to feel it is capable of doing its work without the candidates' help. Coleman keeps raising issues that the board doesn't feel are valid. Franken is just biding his time waiting for the results.

In addition, there are about 1600 absentee ballots that may have been improperly rejected. They were supposed to be counted by Dec. 31, but the canvassing board has asked for an extension until January 2. The candidates have agreed to this date but also have agreed to a plan in which absentee votes are only submitted to the canvassing board if both campaigns agree. While neither campaign knows what the unopened vote is, they both know where it came from. It is likely that Coleman will reject all votes from Franken-friendly counties and Franken will reject all votes from Coleman-friendly counties so possibly no votes will be counted. The court decision enabling this was truly stupid. It should have ordered all 1600 contested ballots to go to the canvassing board to let them decide what to do and kept the campaigns out of the loop. As a result of this decision, some legitimate votes will be discarded and there will be lawsuits over them unless the court changes its mind.

Poll Shows NY Voters Prefer Kennedy Dynasty to Cuomo Dynasty

A Quinnipiac University poll shows that 33% of the New York voters want Gov. David Paterson (D-NY) to appoint Caroline Kennedy, daughter of the late President Kennedy to Hillary Clinton's Senate seat. However, a nearly equal number, 29%, want him to appoint state attorney general Andrew Cuomo, son of the former governor, Mario Cuomo. At 4%, Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), is the leading nondynastic candidate. However, Gov. Paterson is surely not against dynasties; he, himself, is the son of a state senator.

Resistance to Kennedy from Democratic officials is growing. Advisors to the governor apparently have had enough of the "Kennedy is inevitable, get used to it" line coming from pro-Kennedy circles. It sounds eerily like the "Hillary is inevitable, get used to it" line we were hearing about a year ago. And this time around it is a lot less inevitable because there is only one voter, and he has his own interests to think about. In particular, he doesn't owe anything to the Kennedys but would prefer to get Cuomo a good job so Cuomo won't challenge him in a gubernatorial primary in 2010, something Kennedy would never do (having no experience isn't so terrible for a legislative position but is an issue for an executive position). Paterson has given no indication of who he plans to choose and all this public jockeying probably has zero effect on him.

Being appointed to the Senate is no sinecure and the governors of New York, Illinois, Colorado, and Delaware are surely aware of that. The governor of Delaware took the safest course and appointed a placeholder (Ted Kaufman) who said he will not run in 2010. In that way, the Democrat, most likely another dynastic candidate--Joe Biden's son, Beau--will not be burdened by votes taken in the 111th Congress. So far, there is little hard evidence about what Paterson will do and in Illinois we don't even know who will do the appointing, if anyone. Colorado depends a lot of who Gov. Ritter picks.

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Minnesota News

The canvassing board went through most of the challenges yesterday. Doing so whittled Al Franken's lead down from 252 votes to a mere 48 votes or 0.0002%. This is an incredibly close election. However, if instant runoff voting had been used, then the 14% of the voters whose first choice was Dean Barkley could have indicated a second choice and we probably wouldn't have had this mess.

The 1600 improperly rejected absentee ballots have not yet been examined, but in Minnesota, absentee ballots tend to favor Democrats. However, the state supreme court said the two candidates had to agree on a standard for doing so. Seems unlikely to happen. How are they going to decide? One option might be this. Since both candidates are Jewish and it is Chanukah, maybe they could spin a dreidel to decide whose standard to use (a dreidel is a small, four-sided top used by children on Chanukah to gamble with raisins, nuts, or chocolate coins).

Obama Photographed Shirtless

President-elect Barack Obama has been photographed shirtless in Hawaii, where he is on vacation. He is not the first President to be photographed shirtless. Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan, and Lyndon Johnson were as well, as shown below.

Winners and Losers in the 2010 Census

A census bureau projection shows that Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania will each lose a seat in the House after the 2010 census. Five states will gain a seat: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, and Utah. Texas will gain three seats. Along with seats go electoral votes. Based on the 2008 election, blue states lose six electoral votes and red states lose one electoral vote. Blue states gain two electoral votes and red states gain six. In addition, several other states might gain or lose a House seat, but it is close and final allocation depends on population trends in the next year.

CQ Politics Scores Members of Congress

CQ Politics has released a table rating every member of Congress on how often he or she voted with the President and how often he or she voted the party line. Eight House Democrats and one House Republican voted the party line 100% of the time. The least loyal Democrat is Nick Lampson (D-TX) who voted with the Democrats 57% of the time (but it didn't help--he was defeated for reelection. The least loyal Republican is Wayne Gilchrest with a 65% loyalty score. He was beaten in a primary.

One the Senate side, senators Allard, Ensign, Kyl, and DeMint had 100% party loyalty records. No Democrats did. The least loyal Republican is Olympia Snowe (39%) and the least loyal Democrat is Evan Bayh (65%).

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No News from Minnesota

The weary vote recounters took the weekend off in Minnesota. The current state of the Senate election is that Democrat Al Franken leads Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) by 252 votes, with hundreds of challenges yet to be ruled on. In addition, challenges that were withdrawn are yet to be counted.

On top of that, there are about 1600 absentee ballots that were improperly rejected and are yet to be counted. Last week the supreme court ordered the two candidates to agree on which ones to count. It is unlikely they will be able to agree, so anything could still happen.

Democrats Will Not Be at Full Strength Jan. 20

Although Barack Obama wants to hit the ground running, he may be hampered by the fact that some Senate seats will likely be open on inauguration day. There may be vacancies in New York and Colorado due to the appointments of Sen Hillary Clinton and Sen. Ken Salazar to the cabinet, respectively, although these seats probably will have been filled by then. Obama's own seat in Illinois may still be open, depending on whether Illinois governor Rod Blagojevich is impeached and if so, what his successor, Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn (D) does. Then there is the seat in Minnesota still hanging in the balance. Finally, there is Joe Biden's seat, but a successor has already been named and is likely to be seated Jan. 5. The most likely scenario is that the Delaware, Colorado, and New York seats will be filled but the Illinois and Minnesota seats are still open. This would leave the Democrats with 57 seats, two short of what would be needed to invoke cloture in a Senate with 98 seats filled. On the other hand, if the Republicans start obstructing Obama on day 1, they may lose a lot of support among independents who are (naively) expecting some sort of bipartisanship to deal with the country's myriad problems.

Scrambling to Fill Solis' Seat Has Begun

The race to fill Hilda Solis' D+17 seat in Southern California has already begun. State senator Gloria Romero, board of equalization chairwoman Judy Chu, assemblyman Ed Hernandez, state senator Gil Cedillo, and others are already looking at the race in this 62% Latino district. The special election will take place 16-18 weeks after the vacancy occurs and that won't happen until Solis resigns, which she won't do until she is confirmed as secretary of labor. It is a foregone conclusion that Democrats will hold the seat.

Full Cabinet Named Quickly

President-elect Barack Obama named his full cabinet the fastest of any President in 32 years. It is a highly educated batch, with 80% having graduate degrees. Here is the list.

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Franken Expects to Win by 35-50 Votes

Democrat Al Franken has announced that he expects to be elected senator by 35-50 votes. The Minneapolis Star Tribune has estimated Franken will win by 75 votes, so Franken was actually being a bit modest. Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) has not made a prediction. Counting will resume tomorrow.

Warren Defends His Inaugural Invitation

Pastor Rick Warren, whose invitation to perform the invocation at Barack Obama's inauguration, has strongly defended Obama's choice of him saying: "You don't have to see eye to eye to walk hand in hand." He also pointed out that he loves Muslims, people of other religions, Democrats and Republicans and gays and straights. He added that he is a big fan of openly lesbian singer Melissa Ethridge and that his church has probably done more to help people with AIDS than any other in the country.

Bush Loans $17 Billion to the Auto Industry

President Bush brought down the wrath of a large piece of the Republican Party on himself for giving the big three car manufacturers a $17 billion stopgap loan. The loan has a condition in it that members of the United Auto Workers union give back wage and benefits that bring them into line with what the Japanese companies pay at their plants in the South. The Republicans objection is that this condition is not written into law and Barack Obama could easily eliminate it after January 20th.

It is increasingly clear that what southern Republicans really want is to break the back of the UAW (which habitually supports the Democratic Party). Thus while demanding lower wages and benefits as part of the $17 billion loan to the auto industry (where labor costs are 10% of total expenditures) is crucial to them, they didn't make a peep about lowering salaries as part of the $700 billion bailout of the banking industry (where labor costs are 70% of the total). In other words, the $1.7 billion worth of labor costs in the (unionized) auto industry are a big deal but the $490 billion worth of labor costs in the (nonunionized) financial industry is a nonissue.

As Ronald Brownstein points out at the National Journal, the dominance of southern conservatives in the Republican party might lead to a downward spiral for the party. Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) led the fight against the auto bailout. While that stand might fly in Tennessee, it is not going to help Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) or any other Republicans from the rust belt in 2010 to be members of a party that has basically said it is perfectly content with seeing the American automobile manufacturers go bankrupt. If Voinovich and other Midwestern Republicans are defeated as a result of the political views of southern Republicans, the Republican party may become more and more a regional party of the South and parts of the interior West. Corker's views could have long-lasting effects in Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

Bush will have a strange legacy: 7 1/2 years bitterly fighting the Democrats and 1/2 year bitterly fighting the Republicans.

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Franken Takes the Lead in Minnesota

Democrat Al Franken has taken the lead in the Minnesota Senate recount by 252 votes as of the end of counting yesterday. However, both parties withdrew some challenges which could yet be reinstated. The effect of withdrawing and then reinstating challenges is hard to oversee but the Star Tribune is predicting that Franken will hold a 75-vote lead when all the challenges are resolved. However, there are still 1600 absentee ballots to deal with. Absentee ballots in Minnesota tend to skew Democratic but we won't know for sure until they are counted. The Minnesota state supreme court ruled this week that absentee ballots that were potentially incorrectly rejected must be examined again so that every legitimate vote is counted.

If nobody has been chosen by the time the Senate reconvenes Jan. 5, Gov Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) could appoint Coleman to the seat. However, the Senate could refuse to seat him. It could get very messy. Both campaigns expect further litigation.

Cillizza's Take on the 2010 Senate Races

The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza has compiled a list of the 10 most likely Senate seats to flip in 2010. Here is the list, with #1 the most likely to flip and #10 the least likely.

      -   1 Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY)
      -   2 Sen. David Vitter (R-LA)
      -   3 Open (Sen. Mel Martinez' seat in Florida)
      -   4 Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA)
      -   5 Sen. Kit Bond (R-MO)
      -   6 Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH)
      -   7 Sen. Ken Salazar (D-CO)
      -   8 Open (Sen. Sam Brownback's seat in Kansas)
      -   9 Illinois
      - 10. Sen Harry Reid (D-NV) and Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) (tie)

Our rundown of all 2010 Senate races is here. A link to it is on the "Data galore" page on the menu above. It will be updated throughout 2009 as new developments occur. Take a look once in a while.

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Movement in Minnesota

The canvassing board finished counting all the Franken challenges and started examining Coleman's challenges. As a result, Coleman's lead over Franken has dwindled to only 5 votes. Unless you are really into this, you may not understand why examining Franken's challenges helps Coleman and why examining Coleman's challenges helps Franken. Here's how it works. Why would Coleman (for example) challenge a ballot? Because it looks sort of like a Franken vote, but there is something wrong it, like a stray mark on it, that might get it disqualified, as Minnesota law says that stray marks on a ballot make it invalid, and writing in "Lizard people" certainly makes it invalid. However, another Minnesota law says that if the intent of the voter can be determined, then the vote is valid. These laws are in conflict and by challenging a ballot, Coleman is hoping the board will toss it out. As they go through the ballots Coleman challenged, some are indeed thrown out, but others are accepted--nearly always for Franken (just as some of the ballots Franken challenged went for Coleman). With only 5 votes separating the candidates (out of 2.9 million) and 379 more Coleman challenges to be examined today, there is a fair chance Franken will end up leading by tonight.

Late yesterday afternoon Coleman suffered a major setback as the Minnesota state supreme court ruled that improperly rejected absentee ballots must be counted. Coleman fought against this. Minnesota law gives four explicit criteria for rejecting an absentee ballot (e.g., the voter didn't sign the envelope) but about 1600 ballots were rejected for reasons other than these four. For example, some people didn't write their drivers license number on the envelope. But Minnesota law does not require you to have a drivers license to vote. Nevertheless, some absentee ballots were rejected because the voter didn't write a drivers license number on the envelope. Rejecting such a ballot is a clerical error and the court said you can't deny someone the right to vote due to a clerical error. Why did Coleman file this suit in the first place? Presumably because he fears Franken will gain more votes from the 1600 ballots that were improperly rejected. While no one knows how these voters voted, it is known that in Minnesota, absentee ballots tend to skew Democratic.

What are Coleman's options now? He can appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court, but the court might not take the case arguing that since it is state and not federal law at issue, the state courts are the place to resolve this. Of course, in the Florida 2000 election, there was also an issue of state law and the U.S. Supreme Court did take the case, so nobody knows what they would really do if Coleman pursues this route.

If Franken pulls ahead on the challenged ballots and then also gains a bit on the absentee ballots, the canvassing board might certify him the winner. At that point he might fly to D.C. quick like a bunny and then be sworn in immediately. If Coleman continues to fight in the courts, he will then have the additional burden of trying to expel a sitting senator. The courts might be hesitant to do that since the constitution says only the Senate can expel a sitting senator. On the other hand, if Coleman wins the recount and flies to Washington asking to be sworn in, he may discover that Harry Reid is in no hurry at all and is happy to wait until any court challenges are resolved.

Obama Picks a Labor Secretary

President-elect Obama finished naming his cabinet yesterday by choosing Rep. Hilda Solis (D-CA) as secretary of labor. Solis is the third Latino in the cabinet (after Bill Richardson and Ken Salazar). Latinos voted 2 to 1 for Obama, and many of them may now feel their voices are being heard at the highest levels of government. These picks are going to make it very difficult for the Republicans to win back the Latino vote in 2010. Solis is also the fifth woman to get a major appointment. The AFL-CIO was ecstatic about the pick, saying that Solis has an overwhelming pro-labor voting record in Congress.

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Goode Concedes Defeat in VA-05

Rep. Virgil Goode (R-VA), has conceded defeat after the recount in VA-05 was finished. The new congressman from the Charlottesville district will be Tom Perriello (D). Goode seemed like a perfectly safe occupant of the seat until he denounced Rep. Keith Ellison (D-MN), the first Muslim member of Congress. The resulting storm of protest ended his career.

All House races have now concluded. The Democrats won 257 seats to the Republicans' 178. After the 2004 elections, the Democrats had 203 seats in the House, so they have picked up 54 seats in the past two cycles. This puts the Democrats almost back to where they were before the 1994 Republican wave (258 seats). Maybe the Republicans can repeat 1994 in 2010, but Charlie Cook thinks this is very unlikely unless the Democrats mess up big time, which is unlikely since many of them remember the 1994 debacle very well.

Minnesota Recount Continues

The canvassing board is continuing to count the challenged ballots one by one in the Minnesota Senate race. In the past two days, 420 of the ballots challenged by Al Franken have been examined. During this process, Coleman gained about 100 votes. This is normal as Franken challenged many ballots that looked like they were for Coleman but had an outside chance of being invalidated or even ruled as Franken votes. When the board starts examining the Coleman challenges, Franken will gain votes. The Star Tribune puts Coleman's lead at 358 votes as of the end of counting Wednesday.

A new wrinkle in the process is that Coleman is now claiming that as many as 150 votes were double counted by local elections boards. Franken dismissed the claim as "just a theory." Such claims could provide the basis for a later court challenge if Franken is certified the winner.

Shoe-icide Parodies Proliferate

The incident in which an Iraqi reporter threw his shoes at George Bush has generated many parodies. See here and here for some of them.

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Recount of Challenged Ballots Starts in Minnesota

The Minnesota canvassing board began the task of going through the challenged ballots, beginning with 160 ballots challenged by the Democrat Al Franken. It took place in the basement of the state office building in St. Paul. The result of the day's work was 98 votes for Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) and 22 votes for Franken. The rest were ruled invalid. The Star Tribune's current estimate is that Coleman leads by 264 votes, but there are over 1000 challenges left and then come the rejected absentee ballots.

Harry Reid Supports Caroline Kennedy for Senator

For what it is worth, probably not much, majority leader Harry Reid supports Caroline Kennedy for the Senate seat being vacated by Hillary Clinton. Of course, Reid has nothing to say about the matter. Gov. David Paterson (D-NY) gets to make the call. The argument for Kennedy is that she is a star and if she holds a press conference on some subject, the entire national press corp will show up, whereas if one of the other new senators, say Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC) holds a press conference, nobody will show up. Another argument for her is that whoever is appointed will have to run in 2010 and again in 2012 and a member of the Kennedy clan will be able to raise the kind of money needed for two very expensive Senate races. The argument against her is that she has never held public office before and hasn't "earned" the job. But in all fairness, there have been quite a few previous New York senators, such as Bobby Kennedy, Pat Moynihan, and Hillary Clinton, who also started at the top. But all of them started by winning a competitive election, not being appointed to the job.

Blagojevich Impeachment Process Has Started

A special committee of the Illinois state house has begun hearings on whether or not to impeach Gov. Rod Blagojevich, who is accused of trying to sell Barack Obama's Senate seat. The committee will meet every day except Christmas Eve, Christmas day, New Year's Eve, and New Year's Day to get the job done as quickly as possible. If Blagojevich is impeached, a trial will follow in the state Senate. If he is convicted, Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn (D) will become governor and will have the power to appoint a successor to Obama, unless the legislature, by law, strips the appointment power from the governor. If such a law is passed, Quinn would have 60 days to sign or veto it and he would be free to make an appointment during that interval if he so chose.

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AP: Franken Could Pick Up 200 Votes on Challenged Ballots

The Associated Press examined the 5000 challenged ballots still in play during the weekend and estimated that Democrat Al Franken might pick up about 200 votes as a result. Currently, Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) is estimated to lead by about 192 votes. If Franken indeed gets 200 more votes, then he will lead by 8 votes out of 2.9 million cast. The official review of the challenged ballots will begin today. In addition, thousands of absentee ballots are yet to be reexamined.

Caroline Kennedy Wants Hillary Clinton's Senate Seat

Caroline Kennedy, President Kennedy's only living child, is interested in Hillary Clinton's Senate seat. This seat has been occupied before by people with no previous history of election to public office. Caroline's uncle, Bobby Kennedy, won the seat in 1964 and Hillary Clinton won it in 2000. However, one big difference with the current situation is that both of them got the seat by winning an election; Caroline might get it by being appointed to it. However, Gov. David Paterson (D-NY) has given no indication who he intends to appoint. Women's groups want Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY) and Paterson himself would no doubt like to be rid of state attorney general Andrew Cuomo, who is likely to challenge him in a primary in 2010.

Blagojevich Impreachment Process Has Started

The Illinois state legislature has formed a committee consisting of 12 Democrats and 9 Republicans to determine whether Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D-IL) should be impeached. In addition, the state attorney general has appealed to the state supreme court trying to get the governor declared unfit for office.

Obama Names Two More Cabinet Secretaries

President-elect Barack Obama is expected to name the head of the Chicago school system, Arne Duncan, as secretary of education. Duncan has run the Chicago school system, for 7 years. With 400,000 students, it is the nation's third largest. Obama is also expected to name Sen. Ken Salazar (D-CO) as secretary of the interior. If Salazar joins the cabinet, Gov. Bill Ritter (D-CO) will appoint his successor.

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